Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 12.789590 14.622659 16.594271 18.868779 21.416409 24.177970 27.393927
2025-07-20 10.068754 12.553968 15.432016 18.995819 23.273565 28.225518 34.373186
2025-07-27 8.614932 11.360503 14.694333 19.011505 24.421882 30.943147 39.359562
2025-08-03 7.375338 10.237280 13.865243 18.756211 25.125360 33.080289 43.700946
2025-08-10 6.531194 9.479023 13.357604 18.769926 26.051365 35.422265 48.292786
2025-08-17 5.898408 8.917432 13.026674 18.942337 27.136683 37.967204 53.219416
2025-08-24 5.303789 8.333937 12.591920 18.902565 27.883658 40.048647 57.576868
2025-08-31 4.762331 7.764813 12.114051 18.739754 28.411934 41.816419 61.545690
2025-09-07 4.371263 7.376329 11.853440 18.848702 29.300244 44.089232 66.278666
2025-09-14 4.135906 7.201582 11.887244 19.377659 30.804914 47.277905 72.420301
2025-09-21 3.756129 6.758319 11.470671 19.184102 31.206934 48.871507 76.306778
2025-09-28 3.280233 6.110331 10.678767 18.344095 30.561837 48.869955 77.820295
2025-10-05 3.114412 5.976844 10.709506 18.819337 31.992058 52.061202 84.277762
2025-10-12 2.935236 5.803450 10.660293 19.158505 33.221763 54.999525 90.478024
2025-10-19 2.703763 5.512654 10.387120 19.099991 33.794193 56.927134 95.177555
2025-10-26 2.466992 5.188583 10.029549 18.869201 34.061103 58.371583 99.163481
2025-11-02 2.290321 4.960175 9.820445 18.874072 34.708986 60.434661 104.189699
2025-11-09 2.154556 4.797639 9.715722 19.050466 35.647345 62.994022 110.095299
2025-11-16 2.000681 4.583929 9.499550 19.009402 36.201278 64.934611 115.055058
2025-11-23 1.844867 4.350755 9.228049 18.846150 36.525033 66.493908 119.430348
2025-11-30 1.735617 4.204102 9.109773 18.955516 37.330020 68.882959 125.257361
2025-12-07 1.682553 4.172911 9.213553 19.487180 38.916078 72.656267 133.538098
2025-12-14 1.554340 3.964189 8.948454 19.292634 39.160805 74.118587 137.927896